Nitpicking the Experts

ESPN's baseball spent the offseason tossing and turning, each lying awake at night, full knowing this day would come.

It is the eve of the start of the baseball season, and the staff at 108 Red Stitches is ready to analyze their baseball season predictions.

	World Series	American League	National League	Wild Cards
Jayson Stark, ESPN.com	Braves over Tigers	East: Red Sox Central: Tigers West: Mariners	East: Braves Central: Cubs West: Rockies	AL: Indians NL: Mets
Peter Gammons, ESPN/ESPN Insider	Indians over Braves	East: Red Sox Central: Tigers West: Angels	East: Braves Central: Cubs West: D-backs	AL: Indians NL: Mets
Jerry Crasnick, ESPN.com	Tigers over Mets	East: Red Sox Central: Tigers West: Angels	East: Mets Central: Cubs West: D-backs	AL: Indians NL: Braves
Buster Olney, ESPN The Magazine	Indians over Cubs	East: Yankees Central: Indians West: Mariners	East: Braves Central: Cubs West: Rockies	AL: Red Sox NL: Mets
Tim Kurkjian, ESPN The Magazine	Red Sox over Mets	East: Red Sox Central: Indians West: Angels	East: Mets Central: Cubs West: Dodgers	AL: Red Sox NL: Phillies

Sometimes we wonder who's drinking out of the tainted water cooler over in Bristol, CT. Of the five reporters we've selected, (each of whom we hold in the utmost regard as journalists) Buster Olney is the most creative in his picks, and really is the only one of the five that puts his reputation on the line by selecting the Yankes, Indians, and Mariners to win their Divisions, while choosing the Braves, Cubs, and Rockies, to nestle in first in their divisions.

Everyone else loves the Red Sox or (gasp) the Tigers. Ray Charles could have taken a look at the Tigers' lineup and seen that they could wrap up the Central.

The Sox, Tigers, Mets, and Cubs are all safety picks. There's nothing interesting about them. And we, of course don't agree with any of them.

Here are our picks for the 2008 season, and guess what...we're going to be right.

World Series

American League

National League

Wild Cards

Cubs over Yankees

East: Yankees Central: Indians West: Mariners

East: Braves Central: Cubs West: D-Backs

AL: Blue Jays NL: Brewers

Believe it or not, the Cubs will win the World Series, because of a bullpen anchored by Kerry Wood. With the Reds out of a playoff run by early June, they'll send Ken Griffey Jr to the Cubs to give him (and them) a shot at that elusive World Series ring.

A lot of people are giving the Red Sox a lot more credit than they're worth. A cranky rotation, old age at important positions (catcher, corner outfield, third base) and a bullpen that'll be on again/off again; the Red

Sure, everyone says the Yankees biggest problem is their rotation, but they'll score enough runs to cover the five runs a game their staff will allow. They're a year away from going back to the World Series, and coming out on top.

The Mets will stumble out of the gates due to injuries that have ravished their roster. With Sox aren't the same team as last year. Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Elisbury will have their growing pains as well. only Wright and Reyes fully capable of playing everyday without the fear of shattering a hip, the Mets will patch together a lineup and rotation that will lead to "too little, too late" once everyone is fully healthy and healed.

Fantasy Baseball Help: Short Stops

Short stops used to be the fantasy gem position, before first basemen started routinely hitting 40 Home Runs and driving in 100 plus runs ever season. A few years ago, your first round consisted of A-Rod, Jeter, Tejada, and occasionally Frucal, gone before the end of the first round.

Things have changed a little, so we're glad you came looking for some advice.

First, the obvious. Jose Reyes will get you steals, Hanley Ramirez is turing into a cheap 90's A-Rod imitation, Jimmy Rollins will be a MVP Candidate for the next four years, and Derek Jeter will continue to put up solid numbers.

Assuming that you didn't get any of those short stops in your draft, you're left with little options to fill your lineup.

Our biggest "get" at short stop this season will be Miguel Tejada. He'll likely fall in your draft, partially because of the emergence of Troy Tulowitzki as a new fantasy fan favorite, and partially because of his involvement in the steroid scandle.

The last time we checked, being accused of taking steroids is not a major fantasy league statistic. Home runs, rbi's, and run scored, however, are. And since Mr. Tejada will be playing in a ballpark tailored to his offensive approach, we highly recommend grabbing him if he's available.

Edgar Renteria is a quite attractive option at short, too. He'll be hitting in one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball and should have a bunch of at bats with runners in scoring position.

We're suggesting to shy away from two particular short stops this season; J.J. Hardy and David Eckstein. Having Hardy in your lineup is like riding a roller coaster throughout the season. He hit a ton of home runs (15) before the All-Star Break, but fizzled in the second half, barely scraping above 20 dingers to end the season (21).
The Blue Jays signing of Eckstein is a complete head scratcher. If it was a move to sure up defensively, is doesn't make sense; the Jays had one of the best defenses last season. Coupled with the fact that their previous short stop wasn't half bad (John McDonald), signing Eckstein seems like a knee-jerk reaction.

Fantasy Baseball Help: Third Base

If you are looking for the biggest piece of fantasy advice on the internet, you have come to the right place. Get ready for this, and make sure you're sitting down in a chair.

Ready?

DO NOT DRAFT RYAN BRAUN. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES SHOULD YOU CONSIDER TAKING RYAN BRAUN WITH ANY OF YOUR 25 DRAFT PICKS. LEAVE HIM ON THE FREE AGENT WIRE.

Confused yet?

Good.


We're talking about (obviously) Ryan Braun of the Kansas City Royals. It will be the single most mistake this draft year. Our advice to you is to pay extremely close attention during your online draft, if you are hoping to select Braun. Make sure that you're drafting the correct Braun, the one who plays for the Brew Crew.

Ok, back to normal, every day, 108 Red Stitches advice.

If you can't get your hands on Rodriguez, Wright, or Cabrera, do yourself a favor and pick up Garrett Atkins. As long as Atkins is playing in Coors Field, he'll do wonders for your fantasy team. If you're able to draft Atkins, make sure you have spend a lower level pick on a backup third basemen like;

Chase Headley, Padres. This kid can flat out hit. His only problem is where he plays in the field. With Kevin Kouzmanoff plopped down at third for the Padres, Headley could wind up playing in the outfield, or second base. If he's in the outfield, he'll platoon at first, and won't be worth keeping him on your team. If he plays second, we've got a totally different story. In a position with two great options, (Cano and that other Chase) if moved to second, Headley will immediately increase his value.

Scott Rolen, Toronto. His suggested starting bid is $13. He's a great option because he's hitting in a lineup of guys who love to get on base. If you get into a bidding war with another owner, let him go. $13 is relatively high for a guy on the down slope of his career. Rolen has a little something left in his bat if he can stay healthy this year.

Joe Crede, White Sox. The Giants have expressed interest in Crede, as long as he stays healthy during spring training. With the White Sox having a youngster settling in at third (Josh Fields) Crede becomes expendable. If he heads over to the Bay, his value increases, but not by much. We're not suggestion to draft Crede, just want to make you aware of his current situation.

Fantasy Baseball Help: First Base

Our theme for the 2008 fantasy draft is simply put; "Don't waste high picks or spend tons of hard earned cash on a first baseman." First basemen in this draft come a dime-a-dozen.

Even if the top ten first basemen (as listed by Fantasy Baseball Index) are taken before you have a chance to blink, names like Todd Helton, Kevin Youkilis, Conor Jackson, James Loney, Daric Barton, and Lyle Overbay are still available.

Stay away from high priced under-producers like Carlos Delgado ($15) or Richie Sexson ($12). And be wary of flash in the pans like Dmitri Young or Mike Jacobs. Jacobs should be a 30 Home Run guy with huge fantasy upside, but his swing is way to wild and unpredictable to be a consistent contributor to your team.

And if you ever, ever think about drafting Lance Niekro, you should contact your fantasy league manager and tell him to lock your team for the rest of the season and have a love one submit you to a psych ward. Because you obviously have not idea what you are doing and are considered a danger to the human race.

Joey Votto, Cincinnati. Keep an eye on this rookie, if he wins the starting first base job from Scott Hatteberg, scoop him up. He'll most likely be available in your draft, because he plays for a media-less market and 90% of folks in your draft likely won't ever have heard of him. We realize that we downgraded Brendon Phillips because he plays for the Reds, but there's something about a young lefty with something to prove playing in a hitter's dream park that makes us want to take him later in the draft.

Ben Broussard, Texas. Ron Washington, manager of the Rangers, gave Broussard the starting job at first base, no matter what hand the pitcher is using to throw the ball. So this translates into Broussard getting more at-bats, but that doesn't mean he'll get more quality at-bats. He hits like crap against lefties, but playing in a cozy Arlington ballpark should increase his power numbers a bit.

Joe Koshansky; Rockies. He will be the sleeper pick of the year if the Rockies begin to bottom out early in the season. If they head south quickly, the Rockies would look to trade Helton's hefty contract and pick up some minor league prospects or add to their bullpen. Koshansky can rake, and we can only sit back and smile at the thought of what he would do in Coors Field. If Koshansky becomes trade bait himself, his value decreases just a little, depending on where he winds up.

Team Outlook: San Fransisco Giants

Last Season's Record: 71-91
108 Red Stitches Projected Finish: 5th NL West
Major Offseason Acquisitions:
- Aaron Rowand: CF

Major Offseason Losses:
- Barry Bonds: LF (???)


This organization is an embarrassment to Major League Baseball. They had their chance to right the ship with Bonds leaving, make room for some younger players, but they chose to hold onto their old farts.
This Giants club will be the worst team in baseball, and the only record they will be chasing this year will be for the most losses by a team in one season.

Team Outlook: San Diego Padres

Last Season's Record: 89-74
108 Red Stitches Projected Finish: 4th NL West
Major Offseason Acquisitions:
- Randy Wolf: LHP
- Jim Edmonds: CF
- Mark Prior
- Tadahito Iguchi: 2B

Major Offseason Losses:
- Milton Bradely
- Mike Cameron

On paper, this rotation looks dominant; Peavy, Maddux, Prior, Young, and Wolf. But everyone knows that these games aren't played on paper. Maddux is another year older, Prior is one bad pitch from landing on the DL again, Wolf is a ticking time bomb, and Peavy has to be wondering how many times another unbelievable pitching season will find him watching the playoffs from his couch.
The lineup is littered with young guns, but acquiring an aging Jim Edmonds
is a questionable move. Its hard to believe that the Padres don't have anyone in their system that could play centerfield.
Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headly provide a little hope for the Padres, who are looking to add some offense to a lineup lacking punch. Who knows though, maybe the lineup would be amazing if they didn't play half their games in Petco Park.

Team Outlook: Colorado Rockies

Last Season's Record: 90-73
108 Red Stitches Projected Finish: 1st NL West
Major Offseason Acquisitions:
- Jose Capellan: RHP
- Luis Vizcaino: RHP

Major Offseason Losses:
- Kazuo Matsui: 2B
- LaTroy Hawkins: RHP

The Rockies were the Cinderella Team of 2007, making the playoffs after tearing through the NL in the last month of the season. Barnstorming through the playoffs, the Rockies kept on winning until they met the Red Sox in the World Series.
A lot of the Rockies problems in the World Series had to do with the inexperience roster that the team put on the field. This year the Rockies are a little older and a little wiser, so look for them the win the NL West outright and by a large margin. Despite the rotation being a bit shaky after Francis and Cook, Colorado's lineup should mash opposing pitchers.
Talented youth seems to be a dime a dozen in Colorado. Some of their best position players will probably not break camp this year (see Stewart- Koshansky).
Matt Holiday is a perennial MVP candidate and if Brad Hawpe can figure out how to hit lefties, they'll be staring at another World Series appearance awfully soon.

Team Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

Last Season's Record: 82-80
108 Red Stitches Projected Finish: 3rd NL West
Major Offseason Acquisitions:
- Andrew Jones: CF
- Hiroki Kuroda: RHP

Major Offseason Losses:
- Randy Wolf: LHP
- Mark Hendrickson: LHP

Bringing Joe Torre over from the Yankees during the offseason sent a wonderful message to the veterans in the Dodger's organization: "Time to start cashing in on that retirement plan".
Torre will not put up (for long) with the organizational tendency to give playing time to their rustier parts. Torre coming in will usher in a youth movement in LA.
Curious is the decision to sign guys like Jason Schmidt and Hiroki Kuroda, while LA has arms like Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw. LA also has guys like Andy LaRoche and James Looney that need to get more at bats, in order for LA to win ballgames.
Until LA fully commits to an overhaul and a youth movement, the old and the new will continue to butt heads and keep LA out of the playoffs.

Team Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

Last Season's Record: 90-72
108 Red Stitches Projected Finish: 2st NL West
Major Offseason Acquisitions:
- Dan Haren: RHP
- Connor Roberston: RHP
- Chris Burke: 2B
- Chad Qualls: RHP

Major Offseason Losses:
- Carlos Quentin: RF
- Dana Eveland: LHP
- Jose Valverde: RHP

This team had a -20 run scoring differential last season, and still made the playoffs. Their pitching staff received a major upgrade thanks to the Oakland Rebuilding Project. The Diamondbacks are a young and extremely talented team. If Chad Tracey becomes healthy and produces numbers that he's capable of putting up, the Diamondbacks won't have to rely on their pitching staff as much as they did last year.
The Diamondbacks biggest weakness going into the 2008 season is obviously their offense. The Front Office did little to improve their lineup, and will have to look to their younger players to adapt to big league pitching and have better years.